February 3rd, 2021

planet

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I write about finance stuff on here sometimes, but I just wanted to go back to an entry I wrote in 2020. The stock market was plummeting due to COVID-19 and I said we were assholes to be concerned about the market when people were dying. I stand by that accusation. I said if you weren't sure where to invest, invest in charities. I stand by that advice.

I also predicted that the stock market was going to continue declining. I carefully looked at historical data on downturns, then wrote this advice:

when do I invest my money? well, the market will take years to recover, so you've got plenty of time to think about it.

is now a great time to buy? no, we are months away from finding the bottom. if you invest in stocks now, rest assured you are throwing your money away.

I have money, where should I invest it? the stock market will turn your money into a line in a database that slowly rots.


- Spacefem, March 21st, 2020

A lot of investors never look back at their predictions to evaluate their accuracy. But this is the cream of livejournal, top 25, main page quality right here. I am going to tell you how I did.

DEAD ASS WRONG. I almost could not have been more wrong. It is truly amazing and almost hilarious. I made one prediction that year, and it was two days before the absolute bottom of the stock market. It could have been DAY OF but I wrote that entry on a Saturday, and the market was closed. It bottomed out Monday.

The market hadn't been that low in three years, and it may never again be as low as it was on March 23, 2020. After that day, it only increased.

If you would have told me to fuck off and thrown all your cash into a total market index fund the day I told you not to, you would have enjoyed a whopping 75% return on your investment in barely nine months. Every $10 turned into $17. You would have done awesome. The day I told you not to invest was literally the best day to invest.

For my part? Olive's college fund is about $100 less than Josie's, even though I put the same amount into both of them. It's just that with Josie's I made regular, timed deposits all year and didn't try to time it. With Olive's I held off until around July.

So you could take this one of two ways:

1) Don't try to time the market

or

2) If you do try to time the market, don't listen to my advice. AT ALL.

you've been warned.